The focus on the US approach in the Middle East continues to center on negotiations with Iran, where a third round is scheduled this weekend in Oman following April 19 talks in Rome that produced some indications of movement. However, an escalating humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the delayed mission to return Hamas captives safely, including US captive Edan Alexander, are the largest challenges yet to be solved by President Donald Trump’s government.
Arab-Israeli ties and Iran remain the overriding obstacles to US tactics in the area. Well over three months into the second Trump government, the situation appears more advantageous to an agreement on Iran than it does with regard to the Arab-Israeli issue. As the United States gears up for Trump’s scheduled visit on May 13-16 to KSA, Qatar, and the UAE, the delayed attempts to achieve a deal between Israelis and Palestinians remain to hold back the president’s broader aspirations for the Middle East.
Without heavy advances on the Israeli-Palestinian track, attempts to promote strength and prosperity region-wide and reap big dividends like an agreement on normalizing Israeli-Saudi ties are not going to work.
The larger conception of the US foreign approach is Trump’s ongoing attempt to re-make US economic ties with the rest of the world. The president is seen to be pulling back from his theatrics “Liberation Day” tariff declarations on April 2. He signed a 90-day delay on increased tariffs for all nations except Beijing. He has also begun to indicate a walk-back from his high tariffs against China since Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that a US-China trade fight cannot be sustained.
The second significant event in the US over the past week is Trump’s ongoing effort to shrink important national security agencies. Trump spread an executive branchwide hiring freeze for federal civilian personnel, first included in his Jan. 20 executive order, through July 15, 2025. The government also restored provisions that would make it simpler to dismiss thousands of civil servants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio unveiled proposals for a wholesale reorganization of US diplomatic establishments after the abolition of the US Agency for International Development. The Pentagon may face up to 200,000 redundancies from a civilian staff of 750,000 by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, as chaos and in-fighting have created what one ex-senior Pentagon spokesperson described as a total mess.
The central narrative in Trump’s national security strategy persists as follows: increased spending and investment in the military and slashing the institutions of development and diplomacy. In contrast with the unveiling of drastic reductions at the State Department, the president proposed a $1 trillion security budget for 2026 that represents a growth of about 12%.
Measures to reconcile Israel and Hamas persist as Qatari and Egyptian negotiators put forth new concepts on how to halt the war. Hamas dismissed an Israeli offer most recently made where 10 captives would be set free for a 45-day truce. Certain negotiators have indicated that Hamas would agree to sign a long-term ceasefire with Israel under which it would suspend all military activity and transfer the administration of Gaza to an autonomous body of Palestinian technocrats, as proposed by Egypt for postwar management of the coastal region.
Overall, the Israeli-Palestinian front continues to be the most intractable and most troublesome obstacle to making improvements in the Middle East. Without a definitive game strategy to finish the war, return captives to their homes, and enhance the quality of life for the 2 million Palestinians living in Gaza, the broader aspirations of the Trump government for the Middle East will persist in encountering constraints.
