On January 20, 2025, the second term of President Donald Trump will start. Under his leadership, it is expected that he will bring many changes to US foreign policy. President Joe Biden divides the world into 2 sections. One is for democracies and the other for autocracies. Unlike Biden, Trump will focus more on practical relationships. His key goal is to end the Middle East crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war. He aims to strengthen border security and confront China.
Same as other nations, Turkey faces many challenges and opportunities under Trump’s leadership. During his first era, he had both negative and positive moments with Turkish President Erdoğan. While under Joe Biden’s leadership, the Turkey-US relationship was strained due to delays in conversations and different events. However, the partnership between the two nations improved after the time when the Russia-Ukraine war started.
In 2024, diplomatic ties between Turkey and the US strengthened. For this the credit goes to Ambassador Jeff Flake and the resignation of Senator Robert Menendez. It is expected that Trump’s leadership will improve the US-Turkey relationship by practicing cooperation. His era will reduce tensions between these two countries.
US-Turkey relationship under Trump 2nd era
Compared to Trump’s first era, and Biden’s leadership, it is expected this time, the Trump administration will start relations with Turkey differently. Trump will form the national and international security team to enhance border security. He chose his teammates according to his preferences. Many critics raised concerns about Trump’s selection, but his support for Turkey’s President signals a positive message about the Turkey-US relationship. The new administration considers China and Iran as primary threats. This stance matches Erdongan’s opinion, creating the potential for mutually beneficial agreements.
In recent years, the regional position of Turkey has grown. Back in 2020, when Turkey faced many challenges during the first term of Trump. But after a few years, Erdogan’s government became stabilized by consolidated power and has shown influence in Ukraine and Syria. This shift suddenly increased Turkey’s strategic importance, which enhanced its partnership with the United States. It is expected that this relationship will further improve US-Turkey relations under Trump’s leadership.
With their terms ending in 2028, Trump and Erdoğan are free to inspect long-term collaboration without being strained by impending elections. In line with the United States’ importance on internal rather than foreign challenges, Turkey is now surveyed as a more reliable and significant ally. Due to its backing of clashes with forces in Syria, Turkey has become more controlling and has shifted the balance of power away from Iran and Russia. This presents chances for the United States and Turkey to collude on geopolitical objectives and counterterrorism. Trump’s balanced strategy for resolving the strife in Ukraine through talks and a return with Russia makes Turkey a vital ally. Furthermore, Turkey has backed peace dialogues between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which could change commerce and lessen dependence on Iran and Russia. Supported by the United States and Europe, this may bring about long-term stability in the area and open up new methods for cooperation between the two nations.
The security of its Middle Eastern friends will remain a top concern for the Trump administration, which will prioritize regional partnership over direct US intervention. More defense and security coordination has resulted from Turkey’s efforts to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt since 2021. Turkey is a crucial ally for the regional security edge because of its robust military and defense sector.
However, the US and Turkey may battle due to tensions with Israel and the undecided issue of the Kurdish YPG in Syria. Before the October 2023 Hamas attacks, Turkey attempted to strengthen its relationship with Israel; if truces are agreed upon in Gaza and Lebanon, it might make another attempt. Furthermore, Turkey might disarm tensions with the YPG and lessen the US military being there in Syria if it advocates for a peace process with the PKK.
There is hope that rather than additional crises, the US-Turkey relationship would serially improve despite staffing and policy decisions being delayed throughout changes.
