US election 2024: How Trump’s victory could worsen the situation in the Middle East

US election 2024 How Trump’s victory could worsen the situation in the Middle East
Credit: Reuters

Iran’s leaders don’t want ‌Trump to win the Presidential race and become the next President of America. If Trump wins, it could increase ‌conflict in the Middle East and make the situation worse. Polls highlight that Trump and both are very close in this competition. Iran and its allies such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are worried that if Trump is re-elected, then it could make things harder for them. 

Trump is also one of the great supporters of Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. If he wins, he may stand in favor of Israel taking strong actions against Iran. Israel may target Iran’s nuclear sites and put heavy sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. If this happens, then it could hurt the economy and limit the nuclear plans of Iran. 

However, according to experts’ opinion, no matter who becomes the winner of the 5 November race, Iran’s influence in the region is weak. This is due to Israel’s stronger and aggressive actions against Hezbollah and Hamas, close allies of Iran. However, Iran believes that Trump’s support for Israel could lead to many complexities and impact Iran’s plans in the region. 

Analysts believe that if Trump returns to office he may allow Israel to target Iran’s nuclear sites and put stricter demands on Iran. Trump and Netanyahu’s interests are closely aligned with each other in the case of Iran matters. For Israel, Trump’s presidency would prove one of the great advantages. 

One of the Iranian officials said that no matter what the type of situation is, Iran is ready to handle every challenge. He said that Iran has managed to work around the United States sanctions for years. However, another official said that Trump’s victory could harm ‌Iran’s economy. There is a great chance that Trump will be increasing pressure and enforcing oil sanctions, largely to benefit Israel.

Recently, Trump has claimed that he does not want a direct conflict with Iran. He suggested that Israel should pay attention to stopping Iran’s nuclear efforts first. This statement came after ‌ Iran’s missile strike on  Israel. In response, Israel targeted ‌Iran’s military sites. 

Experts say Iran’s options are limited, especially with Trump’s strong support for Israel’s stance against Iran.

Hassan noted that Israel has the great support of the US, which is permitting Israel to win. This strong support only worsened the situation in the Middle East. So, the US needs to take a balanced approach in dealing with Iran and Israel. 

Currently, Iran faces many complexities. Both Democrats and Republicans prove a serious threat to Iran. Kamala Harris also does not support Iran. In her campaign, he called Iran  “dangerous” and “destabilizing” to the Middle East. She stressed that the US should make efforts with its allies to control Iran’s actions. This is the only way to ensure ‌Israel’s safety. 

Trump’s victory could lead to many challenges that Iran’s leader  Khamenei will face. US sanctions may pressure him to agree to a deal that would be beneficial for both the US and Israel. 

A potential US-Saudi defense pact, tied to Saudi Arabia building formal ties with Israel, could isolate Iran even more by forming a united regional front.

Hassan also pointed out that recent successful attacks by Israel on Iran and its allies suggest that limited strikes on Iran may not lead to a wider Middle East war, challenging previous beliefs.

According to a top Arab security official, Israel’s recent attacks on the leaders of armed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas have caused Iran to lose influence over them. 

Iran is especially concerned that Donald Trump might win the presidency again. Trump ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani, a prominent Iranian military figure, and removed the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran while he was in office. Additionally, he put severe sanctions on Iran’s banking and oil sales, which hurt the country’s economy and fueled public discontent with the regime.

President Biden has come under fire from Trump for allegedly allowing Iran to develop its nuclear program and become more powerful by loosely enforcing oil sanctions. According to him, Iran could create a nuclear weapon in 35 days, which would be a major danger to Israel.

Despite his tough rhetoric, Trump might yet pursue a new deal with Iran, presenting it as a better offer, according to an Arab aide. Despite its denials that it wants a bomb, Iran has been enriching uranium at higher levels, which shortens the time it would take to produce one. There are worries that if Iran seems to be on the verge of producing nuclear weapons, Israel would feel pressured to take action against it.

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