A new territorial controversy is unsettling an already strained US–Canada relationship — and this time, it is not directly the result of President Donald Trump’s past remarks about turning Canada into a 51st state.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney this week called on Trump to “respect Canadian sovereignty” in response to reports that US State Department officials have had several meetings with leaders of an Alberta separatist group seeking independence within Canada. This has occurred, according to the Financial Times, at least three times since last April.
This news has heightened tensions in Canada at a time when the Canadian government is trying to present a united front in response to US tariffs and threats to Canada’s territorial integrity.
Who are the Alberta separatists reaching out to Washington?
The group at the center of the controversy calls itself the Alberta Prosperity Project. It advocates for a referendum on Alberta’s independence and has openly courted US support. One of its leaders posted on X that the group intends to ask the US Treasury for a $500 billion line of credit to
“support the transition to a free and independent Alberta.”
The White House has sought to downplay the significance of the meetings. A US official told CNN that administration representatives “meet with a number of civil society groups” and that no support or commitments were offered.
In Canada, however, the optics alone have caused outrage. The premier of neighboring British Columbia described the outreach as tantamount to “treason,” reflecting broader concern that US engagement with separatists could undermine Canadian sovereignty.
What makes Alberta politically and economically distinct?
Alberta is an oil-rich province in Western Canada, comparable in size to the state of Texas, with a population of approximately five million people. The province boasts the Rocky Mountains and world-renowned resorts such as Banff and Lake Louise.
Alberta is frequently labeled Canada’s “energy province,” as its oil sands contribute about 84% of Canada’s domestic oil production. The province’s economy is driven by the energy, agriculture, and a political ideology of low taxes, small government, and economic individualism.
In terms of politics, Alberta is perceived as the conservative bastion of Canada, although its larger cities, Calgary and Edmonton, vote more progressively.
Why do some Albertans want to leave Canada?
The separatist feeling in Alberta is based on the “Western alienation” that has existed since confederation and definitely since Alberta became a province in 1905. Lockdowns during the pandemic and over a decade of Liberal rule in Ottawa have heightened these feelings, which have been further exacerbated by the unity of Canada in the face of Trump’s pressure.
The separatist movement in Alberta is based on the feeling that the federal government in Ottawa does not take its economic and political interests seriously, being dominated by the more liberal provinces of Canada east of the Rocky Mountains. The separatists feel that the federal government’s climate policies restrict the oil industry in Alberta, that the province pays more taxes to the federal government than it receives, and that its conservative ideology is constantly ignored.
How serious is the separatist movement?
Despite heightened rhetoric, the movement remains fragmented. It lacks a single leader or a well-organized campaign and is largely driven by a small group of vocal activists whose influence is amplified online. No separatist political party currently holds seats in Alberta’s legislature.
Still, the political environment has shifted. Shortly after Carney’s Liberals won the April 2025 federal election amid strong anti-Trump sentiment, Alberta’s legislature passed legislation making it easier to organize a referendum on independence.
How has Trump’s return reshaped separatist ambitions?
Trump’s return to the White House has energized Alberta’s separatist movement and, for some, altered its ultimate vision. As a pro-oil conservative, Trump is viewed by many separatists as a natural ally.
At an Alberta independence rally last summer, supporters wore MAGA-style “Make Alberta Great Again” hats and praised Trump as a potential partner in their cause. While most attendees supported full independence, some openly advocated for Alberta to become the 51st US state.
That idea has gained visibility. In February, a billboard along the Calgary–Edmonton highway urged residents to tell Premier Danielle Smith that Alberta should “Join the USA,” accompanied by an image of her shaking hands with Trump. The campaign was funded by a group calling itself “Canadians for the 51st State.”
Are US officials encouraging separatist sentiment?
Several senior Trump administration figures have made comments that separatists see as validating their ambitions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently described Alberta as a “natural partner for the US,” praising its resources and “independent” population.
Bessent suggested Alberta was being blocked from exporting its oil to the Pacific by Ottawa and implied the United States could offer an alternative, saying,
“I think we should let them come down into the US.”
While US officials insist they are not supporting secession, such remarks have heightened alarm in Canada.
How likely is Alberta to actually leave Canada?
According to Solberg, it is “highly likely” that Alberta will hold a referendum on independence, potentially as early as this fall. Only two Canadian provinces have held such votes in the past — both in Quebec — with the most recent referendum in 1995 narrowly rejecting secession.
A separatist group called Stay Free Alberta is currently collecting signatures to force a referendum and must gather nearly 178,000 valid signatures by May. Some of its events have attracted large crowds.
Yet public support for independence remains limited. A January poll by Pollara Strategic Insights found only 19% of Albertans favored leaving Canada. Many who support a referendum may be “symbolic separatists,” said Lori Williams, a political science professor at Mount Royal University.
“For some people, signing a petition is about sending a message to Ottawa, not actually leaving Canada,”
she said.
An anti-secession petition has already collected more than 400,000 signatures, underscoring the depth of opposition.
What about Indigenous rights and legal barriers?
Indigenous leaders have been among the strongest critics of secession. Their treaties with the Canadian Crown predate the creation of Alberta itself, raising complex legal questions about sovereignty.
In response, Alberta’s government added a clause to the referendum legislation guaranteeing Indigenous treaty rights regardless of the outcome.
Premier Danielle Smith has said she does not support secession, but she has declined to condemn separatist activists, describing their grievances as “legitimate.”
What happens if a referendum succeeds?
Even if a majority voted for independence, secession would be “extraordinarily complex and destabilizing,” Solberg warned. There is no clear legal or economic roadmap for how Alberta would leave Canada — or whether it would seek full independence or eventual US statehood.
“These questions remain unresolved,”
he said.
“The legal, political and economic risks are immense.”
For now, the separatist push appears less like an imminent break-up of Canada and more like another pressure point in an increasingly fraught North American political landscape — one in which sovereignty, trade and identity are becoming ever more entangled.
