On January 29, 2025, the New York City Foreign Policy Association (NYCFPA) hosted a panel discussion at the National Press Club, where experts delved into the shifts in U.S. foreign policy under the second Trump administration. The conversation highlighted key areas such as economic priorities, military strategies, diplomatic approaches, and the impact of partisanship on policy decisions.
The discussion was be moderated by Emily Ekshian, with insights from Sharon Weiner, Associate Professor of Foreign Policy and Global Security at American University; Boaz Atzili, Professor of U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East at American University; and Jordan Tama, Provost Associate Professor of Foreign Policy and Global Security at American University.
Key Points of the Discussion:
- Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach: Key Shifts and Priorities
- The panel explored the stark contrast between Trump’s transactional, power-centric foreign policy and the Biden administration’s values-driven approach, which emphasized multilateralism, alliances, and humanitarian aid. Trump prioritizes economic leverage, particularly in countering China, while downplaying foreign aid unless it aligns with U.S. strategic interests.
- The Structure of Trump’s Foreign Policy: Core Tendencies
- Speakers identified three dominant tendencies in Trump’s approach:
- Madman Theory: Trump’s preference for unpredictability, threats, and aggressive posturing as strategic tools, contrasting with Roosevelt’s more diplomatic approach.
- Isolationism: A tendency to reduce U.S. involvement in international institutions and global entanglements, which limits the capacity for coercive diplomacy.
- Transactionalism: A focus on bilateral deals aimed at maximizing U.S. economic and strategic benefits, often with short-term political considerations rather than long-term global stability.
- Speakers identified three dominant tendencies in Trump’s approach:
- Partisan Polarization and Congressional Dynamics
- The panel discussed the influence of partisanship on foreign policy, noting that Republicans are likely to support Trump’s policies, even when privately disagreeing, while Democrats are expected to oppose due to ideological differences and electoral incentives. However, there may be bipartisan cooperation on areas like countering China and supporting strategic tariffs.
- Economic Strategy and Trade Policy: The Role of Tariffs
- Trump’s pro-tariff stance was emphasized, with proposals including significant tariff increases on all imports, targeted tariffs on Mexico and Canada, high tariffs on China, and retaliatory tariffs on countries undermining the U.S. dollar. While these measures could provide short-term leverage, their long-term effects may include economic retaliation, inflation, and challenges to the global trade system.
- Civil-Military Relations and National Security Strategy
- The discussion highlighted concerns regarding the potential use of the U.S. military in domestic law enforcement, a violation of legal norms. Additionally, defense spending, particularly nuclear modernization, could face scrutiny under Republican commitments to deficit reduction, and political entanglements could undermine trust in the military.
- Implications for U.S. Global Standing
- A second Trump administration is expected to challenge international norms and weaken multilateral institutions. While certain policies may offer short-term strategic advantages, the long-term effects could erode global confidence in U.S. commitments and contribute to geopolitical instability.
Academic Insights on Geopolitical Issues
- Border Politics and Territorial Integrity: Dr. Boaz Atili analyzed Trump’s willingness to recognize disputed territories like the Golan Heights and Western Sahara, challenging post-WWII norms. This stance may provoke further territorial disputes, particularly in the Middle East.
- Trump’s Role in Middle Eastern Conflicts: Trump’s transactional approach in the Middle East, focusing on economic deals and normalization between countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel, contrasts with more traditional diplomatic efforts. His strategy in Syria and Iran is expected to remain isolationist, with limited military involvement.
- Assessing Trump’s Foreign Policy Success: Key indicators for success include conflict resolution, global economic stability, humanitarian outcomes, and the strength of U.S. global alliances.
- Nuclear Arms Control and Relations with Russia and China: A potential nuclear arms race could be triggered by a U.S. nuclear test, although a historic arms control agreement with Russia and China remains a possibility.
- Ukraine and China Relations: Trump’s approach to the Ukraine-Russia conflict and his trade war with China could have significant long-term effects on global stability.
The panel concluded that while Trump’s foreign policy approach presents opportunities for short-term strategic gains, it remains highly unpredictable. His transactional and isolationist tendencies could lead to long-term instability in global relations, weakening U.S. alliances and undermining multilateral cooperation, while challenging international norms. The success of his foreign policy will ultimately depend on whether it resolves conflicts or exacerbates global instability.
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The New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs (NYCFPA) is a policy, research, and educational organization headquartered in New York State with an office in Washington D.C. NYCFPA is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan, institution devoted to conducting in-depth research and analysis on every aspect of American foreign policy and its impact around the world. The organization is funded by individual donors. The organization receives no corporate or government donations.