Republicans selected their nominee to face Democratic President Joe Biden in the US presidential contest on Monday in the state of Iowa. Not only is this election being monitored in the US, but also globally. January is a month dedicated to new beginnings, but this year’s formal start of an election year in the US makes it anything but new.
Although the rivalry is not new, it has significant implications for many of the topics that Washington’s European partners care about most. In spite of the extreme polarization of US politics, a bipartisan agreement has developed on several foreign policy matters.
Regarding foreign policy matters that resonate strongly with white working-class voters in swing states, Republicans and Democrats are becoming closer to one another. This includes initiatives to increase domestic production capacity, a rising bipartisan consensus in favor of supporting US industrial employment in the face of global competition, and opposition to military adventures abroad, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa.
Europeans should act now to strengthen and defend their own standing in the globe rather than waiting to see if there will be significant changes in US policy in the years to come.
Trade and Economic Policies
There is a growing consensus among Republicans and Democrats on a less neoliberal outlook for the US economy. Democrats have always been less confident in free trade agreements than Republicans have been, believing that they do not adequately safeguard labor and environmental norms.
Their leaders see the political need at home to preserve and advance industrial employment in the United States, and they are beginning to see some sectors and technology as too critical or strategically significant to be exported. Republicans are expanding on the achievements of President Trump, who in 2016 upended the party’s long-standing support for the free trade agenda.
According to him, US trade policy has put the country in unequal trade deals, allowing adversaries to gain the upper hand and allies to profit from US security assurances. Trump placed sweeping taxes on both allies and adversaries alike and removed the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was slated to account for 40% of the global economy, while promising to cut trade imbalances and safeguard home businesses.
Collaboration between Defense and Security
According to figures from Eurostat, the EU had a 153 billion euro ($180.3 billion) surplus with the United States in 2019 that is, it sells more goods to the country than it imports. In 2019, U.S. imports into the EU were around 232 billion euros, while exports from the EU to the U.S. were valued approximately 384 billion euros.
Since NATO’s creation, the United States has been its most important member, but this status will be contested in the 2024 election. There is no doubting Biden’s support for NATO and the US’s leadership position in it. The Biden administration has made “reinvigorating” important US partnerships a top priority, as seen by its leadership of NATO members’ reaction to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Regarding dedication to NATO, a second term should be essentially constant; nevertheless, there will also be strong calls for European partners to meet or beyond 2% objectives and overall shoulder a larger portion of the alliance’s cost. Trump, on the other hand, made it clear throughout his administration how little he cared about NATO and has since hinted at leaving the organization. Congress has introduced legislation that forbids any president from leaving NATO without the consent of the Senate or an act of Congress, demonstrating how seriously it has taken his remarks.
Global Cooperation
“Some U.S. tech giants made a significant share of their global profits on the EU market, in addition to trade in goods and services.” U.S.-EU relations are important for both parties, to put it briefly. Nearer to home, Central American countries are in the news as more and more people attempt to cross the border into the US through an increasingly permeable barrier.
Additionally, this week saw airstrikes in Yemen spearheaded by the US against the Houthi rebels. The already turbulent situation is made more unpredictable by the possibility of Republican Donald Trump winning reelection and implementing his America First foreign policy platform. A few nations eagerly await his return.
The United States is evolving, and so is US foreign policy. The cornerstone of the foreign and security policies of the majority of EU members has long been the European alliance with the United States.
However, it is clear from the turmoil of the Trump administration and the more civilized foreign policy revolution of the early Biden administration that America’s old world and the old deal it made with Europe will not last. Understanding the complex world of US internal and international politics is still vital for Europeans, who continue to rely heavily on US security promises. As a result, fear in Europe over a possible Republican presidential candidate in 2025 is especially elevated.
It is common to invoke the threat of a Trump presidency as justification for giving Europe more strategic autonomy.
Technology And Innovation Collaboration
Therefore, the outcome of the congressional elections will be equally important in this regard. It is improbable that financial support levels in 2025 will be the same as they were during the first 14 months of the conflict when all the factors are taken into account.
There’s a chance that assistance may be drastically reduced. Naturally, curiosity regarding the foreign policy stances of the many Republican presidential contenders is piqued by this feeling of fear. Republicans will always formulate their positions in contrast to the Democratic government that is now in power.
Whether Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, or another Republican wins the presidency, it will still be very important. This year’s presidential election in the United States is not the only one that will have a significant impact on Europe. European economies are at “serious risk” from U.S. politics, claims Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank. This week, he issued a warning, stating that a challenged election result may cause “serious uncertainty and significant street protests” by the losing side’s supporters in the United States.
Conclusion
Strong international alliances are necessary for the US to address any of those issues, which is why the rest of the world is interested in how this election turns out. There are worries that if Trump gets re-elected, he would declare war on trade with Europe, as he has promised to do. Last year, he asserted that Europe had treated the United States worse in many ways. The economies of the United States and Europe would suffer from a trade war, but the EU would suffer more if tariffs were placed on its exports to the US.
