The U.S. military is preparing for the possibility of weeks-long operations against Iran in case President Donald Trump decides to attack Iran, two U.S. officials told Reuters. This could potentially lead to a conflict that is much more serious than the ones that have occurred in the past between the two nations, which could have a major impact on the current diplomatic efforts.
Was the Pentagon Previously Unprepared for Trump’s Threats?
When President Trump threatened Iran last month to attack it if it did not agree to limit its nuclear program, the military was said to be in no position to carry out such a strike. This is because 30,000 to 40,000 American soldiers are stationed in the Middle East, where they have no adequate air defense against Iranian attacks. The planes that would be used in a large-scale attack are stationed in Europe or America, while most of the military equipment that had been stockpiled over the past two decades of war had already been removed from the region.
Why Did National Security Officials Urge a Delay?
Top national security officials counseled the president to put off military action while the Pentagon re-established its ability to carry out both offensive and defensive operations.
“The concern wasn’t just striking Iran, but also protecting U.S. interests and allies in 11 countries that could be hit back by Iran,”
said three U.S. officials.
What Is the White House’s Position on Military Options?
“President Trump has all options on the table with regard to Iran,”
said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly. She emphasized that the president listens to multiple perspectives but ultimately decides based on U.S. national security interests.
What Forces Are Being Assembled for Potential Conflict?
As Trump weighs military action in case diplomacy fails, the military has been preparing what Trump called an “armada.” This consists of eight guided missile destroyers that have the ability to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles, ground-based missile defense systems, as well as submarines that are equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles. The military says that these moves are meant to offer both offensive and defensive capabilities against Iranian retaliation.
How Has Trump’s Rationale for Targeting Iran Shifted?
At first, Trump’s position was to stand with Iranian protesters against their government, although he later backed away from his assertion that the U.S. was “locked and loaded” to defend the protesters. More recently, Trump’s attention has turned again to the Iranian nuclear program, which Iran maintains is for peaceful purposes.
According to Vali Nasr, a Johns Hopkins University professor, Trump’s initial threat of force came before the military was ready to act, allowing Iran to prepare its response.
“He threatened war before the U.S. military was ready,”
Nasr said.
“But having put war on the table and then having to back off to give buildup time, he also alerted Iran that war was coming.”
Has Trump Decided on Military Action?
According to senior administration officials, Trump has not yet made a decision on attacking Iran. After his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said that “no final decisions were made,” but he emphasized that “negotiations should continue.” Later, he told the press that
“regime change in Iran would be the best thing that could happen.”
What Military Options Are Being Considered?
According to officials, Trump is considering options related to Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities, as well as operations involving U.S. commandos against Iranian military targets. Nevertheless, officials made it clear that the Pentagon must first improve defenses at U.S. bases in Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.
Former CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel highlighted the importance of being prepared, saying that any U.S. attack would likely be followed by Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces and allies.
How Massive Is the Current Military Buildup?
Trump has compared the build-up to other deployments, such as the one against Venezuela, but the Iranian situation is part of a much larger regional strategy. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and its accompanying warships are the backbone of a dozen U.S. ships in the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and Eastern Mediterranean. Iranian drones have been shadowing the carrier, and one was destroyed after it approached the ship.
The carrier’s F-35 and F/A-18 planes, as well as other F-15E fighters, are placed in striking range of Iranian targets. A second carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, has also been directed to move into the Middle East, while B-2 bombers and other long-range planes are placed on high alert in the United States.
What Signs Would Indicate Imminent Major Operations?
According to analysts, some of the important indicators that would show the launch of a large-scale attack would be the presence of aerial refueling tankers, jamming aircraft, and the movement of ballistic missile submarines closer to Iran. Although the presence of submarines that can carry as many as 154 Tomahawk missiles would be an important addition to U.S. firepower, none have been seen moving into the area.
How Is the Pentagon Preparing for Iranian Retaliation?
In addition to its offensive capabilities, the Pentagon is deploying additional Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems to protect U.S. forces from Iranian missile attacks. Retired Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. said that Iran’s leaders are likely taking the build-up seriously in light of Trump’s track record, which includes bombing Iranian nuclear facilities and killing General Qassim Suleimani.
“The Iranians fear Trump because he killed Suleimani and he hit their nuclear sites,”
McKenzie said.
“They’re scared of him because he takes direct action.”
This escalating military posture indicates that while diplomacy is ongoing, the United States is also actively preparing for a potentially long and intense conflict with Iran.
