Recently, it seems like Russia is benefiting and President Vladimir Putin is in a strong position. Ukraine gets less support from Western nations. Many people are talking positively about Russia. The victory of Donald Trump in the US election also seems beneficial for Russia. All of these situations highlight that soon Moscow will get what it wants. However, this stance is not entirely correct. The facts about Russia’s situation are much more complicated, and there is little cause for optimism in the Kremlin.
The fight between Russia and Ukraine has been starting for the last 3 years. And during this period, Russian forces are making steady progress with more military aid and soldiers. But it does not mean that Ukraine’s defeat is guaranteed. No matter that Russia is continuously forcing Ukraine into attacking its infrastructure, Russia’s success is not confirmed. All of these attacks do not mean that Russia’s position is secure. There are still many unknowns and challenges ahead for Russia.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin indeed faces many complex challenges in his unclear path of success against Ukraine. Many think that the victory of Donald Trump in the US election eased the tension and lessened the United States’ support for Ukraine. But Trump’s success does not mean that Russia will be successful in its aim. The main problem is that no Western leader has a plan that aligns with Putin’s demands, such as preventing Ukraine from joining NATO or making its government pro-Russian.
Putin may have aimed to make war more severe and complicated for Ukraine. However, the limited resources of Russia make it unable to take control of different cities in Ukraine. Another hope for Russia is that soon Ukraine will surrender and replace President Zelenskyy with a leader who supports Russia. This would mean that Ukraine agrees to accept the demands of Russia, such as giving up and giving land to Russia. But Ukraine does not agree to accept such demands of Russia because, with this, Ukraine will lose its independence.
Russia is making an effort to influence both Ukraine and the West to change its leaders. They want to remove President Zelenskyy and give leadership to those who agree to cooperate with Moscow. However, although Ukraine faced many challenges, there is no chance the Ukraine will change its government in Kyiv. It means the present government of Ukraine will never agree to fulfill the demands of Russia.
Another chance is that incoming Western leaders could pressure Ukraine to form a government that would cooperate with Russia and accept its demands. The Kremlin seems to be hoping for this outcome. However, Western leaders such as Donald Trump seem to have never pushed for a change of government in Ukraine. Many leaders and people also don’t want Ukraine to surrender or Russia to be successful and take the lead.
Russia is getting ready for the final push in Ukraine. The nation is hoping for a breakthrough that would result in fulfilling its demand and talks about Ukraine’s surrender. If this does not happen, it may be possible that Russia will call for more soldiers, bringing instability and political risks.
While Russia has been offering bigger bonuses to recruit soldiers, it still faces a shortage of troops. If losses continue, Russia may struggle to maintain its progress in Ukraine.
The US election and Donald Trump’s victory put Russia in a tough position. Kremlin is not sure about how he will improve relations. Furthermore, many Russian officials such as Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, are waiting for Trump’s initial action. They are curious about his actions that decide the fate of Russia’s Ukraine war.
Some suggest that Russia should ease tensions with Kyiv to express its desire to open new talks. This step by Russia will be a sign of goodwill and a positive step towards diplomacy. However, many think that this idea will not get successful. According to them, it is good for Russia to use its military strength and never depend on military talks with Washington. This is because in the US there are many strong anti-Russia views.
Russia’s plans are unclear. They are not clear about what they want, as the nation is stuck between trying for peace or risking more fighting. One wrong move could bring many complexities, such as facing NATO directly or needing more troops. At the same time, the West plays a key role in deciding what happens next in Ukraine.
