Poland’s president Andrzej Duda proposed earlier this week that American nuclear warheads would be deployed on its soil.
“The borders of NATO moved east in 1999, so twenty-six years later there should also be a shift of the NATO infrastructure east,”
Duda told the Financial Times. “I think it’s not only that the time has come, but that it would be safer if [nuclear] weapons were already here.”
Following that, he reiterated the idea: “Every strategic kind of infrastructure, American and NATO infrastructure, which we have on our soil is strengthening the inclination of the US and the North Atlantic Alliance to defend this territory.”
Duda’s statements display increasing uncertainty, or even suspicion, among Central Europe’s decision-makers, in light of a short shift or at the very least an uncertainty of US foreign policy under Donald Trump’s administration.
In recent years, the issue of nuclear deterrence in the debate on Europe’s autonomous defence capacities has become a contentious issue in several capitals, particularly after the recent thawing of transatlantic ties. European leaders have publicly expressed their problems and scepticism about the US’ trustworthiness as a NATO partner.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in the past, preferred to reinforce relations with European Union allies, partly and implicitly at the cost of Poland’s bilateral ties with the United States.
This explains, for example, the Polish government’s steps to revitalize the Weimar Triangle (a diplomatic format comprising Poland, France, and Germany), as well as its more accommodating attitude to the purposes of Paris and Berlin to induce Europe more autonomous and less hanging on the US.
Conversely, the previous Law and Justice party government under Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki maintained strained relations with Brussels and kept a critical attitude toward Germany. At the same time, it enjoyed a thriving relationship with both the Trump and Biden administrations in Washington.
Currently, the right-wing Polish opposition harshly criticizes the coalition in power for its “excessively pro-European tilt,” blaming Tusk for deliberately attempting to “push America out of Europe,” alongside his German and French colleagues. Conversely, government officials and parliamentarians criticize their political opponents for being “blindly Trumpian.” This variation is one of the major hooks of the upcoming presidential election in Poland, which will take place on May 18.
Thus, the Polish president’s recent remarks must be considered in a larger context of internal politics. Despite being elected ten years ago on a moderately conservative ticket and constitutionally blocked from a third term, has been extremely pro-American during his time in office. As of Trump’s second inauguration, he has been stubborn about the necessity of maintaining excellent links with the United States.
More recently, Duda was subtly applauding French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent proposal of evolving the French atomic umbrella over other European NATO nations. In spite of this, the Polish president’s message was straightforward: “Nowadays, we need a US military presence on NATO’s eastern flank more than ever—even in the extreme and provocative form of nuclear warheads.”
This message was aimed as well at the domestic audience as well as the government: “You may dislike Trump’s policies, and in particular his animus toward the EU, but turning our back on the United States now would be preposterous and suicidal.” However, for Duda and other right-wingers in Poland, European “autonomy” is an illusion, an intriguing yet elusive dream, suited only for the time being.
