The majority of Europeans view the United States under Donald Trump as a “necessary partner” rather than a true “ally.” This change in perspective is a significant departure in the transatlantic alliance and reflects worries about Trump’s foreign policy strategy and how it may affect global order and European security. European opinions about Trump vary widely among countries and political parties, showing a diverse range of views. As European leaders negotiate the changing dynamics of the transatlantic alliance, this divergence offers them both chances and challenges.
Europeans view the US more as a required partner with whom they must strategically collaborate than as an ally with similar interests and values. On this, they are largely in agreement, but it also reveals that individuals with varying political philosophies have extremely varied opinions of Trump. That might indicate disagreements about the kind of transatlantic partnership they hope to see in the future.
Expectations of EU from US
A major change throughout the second half of 2024 is the widespread expectation among Europeans for Russia-Ukraine peace talks. However, the light and shadow patterns are also asymmetrical here. If Trump raises the pressure for discussions, European leaders must pay attention to the wide range of opinions on what those conversations should include and how Europe should approach the theatre in the long run.
China’s policy already presents a similar image of the divide. European opinions differ greatly and do not neatly align with those about Trump or America. This allows the US government to take advantage of disparities. Last but not least, Europeans generally have a more pessimistic view of the EU than most people in other countries. However, not many people think that the dark has completely descended.
Two other camps acknowledge the grey areas between the most optimistic and pessimistic factions regarding the union’s prospects and influence. Leaders can look to those organizations for assistance as they work to illuminate Europe’s course as the transatlantic alliance’s radiance wanes.
Twilight is typically thought of as the time immediately following sunset when the light is beginning to fade. In technical terms, nevertheless, it refers to any time of day when the sun is barely beyond the horizon. As a result, it might also allude to dawn the hour before a new day begins. The existing relationship between Europe and America is aptly described by that very uncertainty. Traditional Atlanticism is vanishing. However, either immediately or after a lengthy night, a new one will have to be born.
Why is the US so necessary for Europeans?
The most widely held opinion is that the US is a “necessary partner” that Europeans must strategically work with rather than an “ally.” This is even true in traditional Atlanticist strongholds, such as Denmark and Poland, where the US was viewed predominantly as an ally and a half years ago. Trump’s political comeback and subsequent election victory may be significant factors influencing perceptions of the US as a ‘necessary partner,’ although the polls do not establish a direct causal relationship. Most people in Ukraine (67%–27%), Spain (57%–14%), and Estonia (55%–28%) saw the US as a “necessary partner” rather than an ally. However, the ratio was 44% to 37% even in the UK, which takes pride in its “special relationship” with the US.
This is a chance for politicians who support European cooperation and interests to reestablish transatlantic relations. It is an opportunity to make Europe a more independent, adaptable, and, eventually, safer and more confident partner. However, Europeans will give up the responsibility of illuminating a path ahead to a new, nationalist, MAGA-style transatlantic project that is already confidently stepping out of the shadows if they allow Trump to split and transfix them.
There were notable divisions on other subjects, indicating room for Trump’s “America First” administration to pit member states against one another, even while Europeans were basically in agreement on US foreign policy.
Worldwide opinions about the US
One noteworthy subtrend within this is that some, but not all, of the followers of Europe’s far-right parties, who have historically been skeptical of the transatlantic alliance, defy the continental trend. Though opinions among supporters of France’s National Rally (RN) are essentially unchanged, followers of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party now have a more favorable opinion of the US.
The leaders of the parties are reflected in this. The RN’s Marine Le Pen responded more subtly to Trump’s reelection than did Alice Weidel, the AfD’s candidate for chancellor. The political mainstream in Europe is showing a more steady change. Since 2023, supporters of parties such as Macron’s Renaissance in France, the Socialists (PSOE) in Spain, the Christian Democrats (CDU), Social Democrats (SPD), and Greens in Germany have all changed their views on America.
