Recent US intelligence assessments have cast serious doubt on whether Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, is prepared to fully align with the Trump administration’s geopolitical agenda by severing ties with America’s principal adversaries, according to four people familiar with the reports.
The findings highlight a growing disconnect between Washington’s public demands and the political realities inside Venezuela following the January 3 capture of longtime leader Nicolás Maduro by US forces.
US officials have been explicit in their expectations: Rodríguez is supposed to formally cut relations with Iran, China, and Russia—expelling their diplomats, advisers, and security personnel as a condition for continued US backing. Yet weeks after taking office, Rodríguez has made no public commitment to such a rupture, and intelligence agencies remain unconvinced she intends to follow through.
Symbolic Signals Undermine US Expectations
The inauguration of Rodríguez served as an early warning sign. As she was sworn into office, she was accompanied by Iranian, Chinese, and Russian representatives – three of Washington’s largest rivals on the globe. This not only raised suspicions that Venezuela’s foreign policy would likely take much longer to change compared to what the Trump administration expected but it also reinforced these suspicions.
Recent intelligence reports provide no indication of whether Rodríguez has a true commitment to the Washington strategy or whether she is simply trying to gain time and consolidate power. Two sources suggest that there were concerns prior to the US military operation that removed Maduro, which raises additional questions about the extent to which the Trump administration accepted these risks.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Caracas on January 15 to meet with Rodríguez and discuss the political future of Venezuela, but it was unclear whether this meeting changed the intelligence community’s opinion about this matter. Given the lack of clarity surrounding the nature of Washington’s leverage over the interim government, it can be assumed that the intelligence community is unable to assess Rodríguez’s commitment because of the secrecy surrounding this issue.
Oil Wealth Drives US Stakes in Venezuela
The strategic importance of Venezuela to Washington goes far beyond politics. The country holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world—over 300 billion barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia. Years of mismanagement and sanctions have collapsed production from more than 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to under 800,000 barrels per day in recent years.
US officials see Rodríguez’s cooperation as a gateway to reopening Venezuela’s energy sector to Western investment. Breaking with China, Iran, and Russia would clear legal and political barriers for American oil companies, potentially reshaping global energy markets at a time of heightened volatility.
Rodríguez has already authorized the sale of 30 million to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude to the United States, a move widely interpreted as a goodwill gesture aimed at stabilizing her position with Washington.
Longstanding Ties to US Adversaries Complicate the Picture
Severing ties with Venezuela’s longtime partners would come at a significant cost.
- Iran has played a critical role in repairing Venezuela’s decaying refineries, keeping oil exports alive despite sanctions.
- China is owed tens of billions of dollars in oil-backed loans and has long accepted crude shipments as debt repayment.
- Russia has supplied military hardware, including missile systems, and provided security cooperation to the Venezuelan armed forces.
- Cuba, another Trump-designated adversary, has embedded intelligence and security personnel in Venezuela in exchange for heavily discounted oil.
For Rodríguez, abandoning these alliances risks destabilizing the very pillars—energy production and military loyalty—that keep the interim government functioning.
A Fragile Partnership Built on Mutual Distrust
Despite intelligence doubts, the Trump administration sees no immediate alternative to working with Rodríguez. Two sources said Washington’s public endorsement of her leadership has narrowed its options, making a rapid pivot politically costly and strategically risky.
A senior Trump administration official said the president “continues to exert maximum leverage” over Venezuela’s leaders and “expects this cooperation to continue,” signaling confidence that pressure—not trust—is the core tool guiding US policy.
Behind the scenes, however, US officials are quietly expanding contacts with senior Venezuelan military and security figures as contingency planning, according to a source briefed on Venezuela policy. This hedging reflects fears that Rodríguez could resist or reverse US demands once her domestic position solidifies.
Rodríguez Pushes Back Against US Pressure
Publicly, Rodríguez has sent mixed signals. While authorizing oil sales and releasing political prisoners to appease Washington, she has also criticized US involvement. In a speech on Sunday, she said she had had “enough” of American intervention—a statement that reinforced intelligence concerns about her long-term reliability.
At the same time, US officials have described recent phone calls with Rodríguez as constructive, highlighting the ambiguity that defines the current relationship.
Machado Seen as a Long-Term, Not Immediate, Alternative
US intelligence assessments also addressed the prospects of opposition leader María Corina Machado, who remains highly popular domestically and whose supporters say she overwhelmingly won Venezuela’s disputed 2024 election.
Despite her popularity, intelligence officials concluded Machado currently lacks the institutional support needed to govern—particularly ties to the military and the oil sector, both of which remain dominated by figures shaped under Maduro’s rule.
Trump has said he wants Machado “involved” in Venezuela’s leadership, but sources describe her as a long-term option, not an immediate replacement. One person familiar with White House discussions said Machado is well-regarded but would likely begin in an advisory role if included at all.
Strategic Risk for Washington
The intelligence findings point to a central dilemma: Washington wants rapid geopolitical realignment without deep military entanglement, yet is relying on an interim leader whose loyalty remains uncertain and whose power depends on alliances the US wants severed.
Failure to control Rodríguez could undermine Trump’s broader effort to curb Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence in the Western Hemisphere. At the same time, attempting to replace her too quickly could destabilize Venezuela further and draw the US into a deeper, costlier role.
For now, US policy rests on pressure, patience, and contingency planning—but intelligence officials warn that the gap between Washington’s expectations and Caracas’s realities remains wide, and potentially dangerous.
