Without a doubt, the actual conflict in Ukraine is not being fought in the skies over Kyiv or Dnipro, where Russian drone attacks have significantly increased in recent days. Nor will the fight, which is already in its third year, be determined by the Russian army’s sluggish, grinding advance on the bloody frontlines of eastern Ukraine.
No, US President Donald Trump, who appears to be growing more and more irritated with attempts to mediate a settlement, is listening to the pivotal battle being fought by the opposing sides and their friends. And for that reason, the phone conversation he is scheduled to have with Russian President Vladimir Putin later today might be quite significant.
In an attempt to sway Trump’s reversible views, at least temporarily, Moscow and Kyiv are fighting to show that the other party is the true impediment to peace. Amid worries that Trump’s perspective on the issue may be influenced by who he speaks to last, European officials said they would also be chatting with Trump before his discussion with Putin.
Trump made some of his most critical comments about Putin just last month, following his speech to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky at Pope Francis’ funeral. He denounced the Russian leader for attacking Kyiv with missiles and said he couldn’t be certain if the Russian leader was sincere about ending the war.
The Russian president will enjoy exclusive access to the presidential ear to himself for as long as Monday’s meeting lasts. Putin has rejected a 30-day truce that Ukraine committed to and that President Trump has asked for. He might put whatever flattery, commercial inducements, or poison Putin determines would be most effective within it.
Trump and Putin already appear to be adamant that they are the only ones with the personal power and expertise to end the conflict in Ukraine and that the Europeans and Ukrainians themselves would eventually follow orders.
Last week’s lackluster negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey, the first direct meetings between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in years, appear to have emphasized President Trump’s personal belief that a settlement is essential. By contacting Putin personally, it has prompted him to re-engage in peace initiatives from which he had just recently threatened to withdraw.
The primary situation among Ukrainians is that the two executives will examine their own peace strategy over the conversation with President Trump, who argues to call his Ukrainian president later. Then, they might try to impose Putin’s terms while threatening to withhold crucial US military and financial assistance.
If he wants to, President Trump can also exert pressure on Russia. The Kremlin surely does not want to pressure a resentful and spurned Trump into resuming and perhaps even tripling US assistance for the war effort in Ukraine in the face of rising losses and a struggling financial sector.
As always, the issue is that neither Russia nor Ukraine are prepared to make enough concessions to appease the other party, let alone accept the other’s minimal demands.
That does not imply that conversations, whether direct, in person, or over the phone, are useless. They can at least entice engagement to the existing space between the both flanks. However, this might suggest that both Moscow and Kyiv might decide to continue fighting despite pressure from the United States and following a direct phone conversation with President Trump.
