Putin recently made Russia’s nuclear defence plan bigger. He said that if a country that doesn’t have nuclear weapons attacks Russia with help from a country that does, it will be treated as a joint attack. It seems like they directed their focus toward Ukraine. This nation is asking the US for permission to use the long-range missiles. They want to target deep inside Russia with these missiles.
This message is for Ukraine, which is a non-nuclear country, and the US, which has nuclear power and great support for Ukraine. This statement is a warning for Ukraine and its Western supporters. Targeted Russia will lead to a conflict with NATO. If the US permitted Ukraine, then the situation could become worse. So the US should think twice before granting permission.
France and the UK, both nations are willing to make Ukraine a target for Russia, but they want the US to decide first. However, some European leaders are frustrated with this delay. They want the US to allow Ukraine to use missiles to defend itself.
One of the researchers at the United Nations, Pavel Podvig, points out the big moderation in Russia’s nuclear rules. Right now, Russia doesn’t make a clear difference between attacks from countries with nuclear weapons and those without. Any danger to Russia could result in a nuclear attack. However, this strategy by Russia is not new.
Since 1995, Russia has said it would not use nuclear weapons against countries without them unless those countries worked closely with a nuclear power. They thought the nuclear country would be the main attacker.
However, the new updates explore that nations that don’t have nuclear power could also be considered the main attackers. This means Russia may be at risk of attack from non-nuclear nations in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war. This highlights the fear of Russia in war and also Ukraine’s allies such as the US becoming the source of fear for the Russian military.
Podvig explains that the new rules suggest a non-nuclear country can also be seen as an attacker, which could allow for a nuclear response in a combined attack.
In a recent United Nations Security Council meeting, Putin announced that if Russia gets information about an attack with planes, missiles, and drones, then it might use its nuclear weapons. He also said that an attack on Russian allies would be seen as an attack on Russia itself. So any nation that has aimed to attack Belarus should think twice. Russia could respond with nuclear force to protect Belarus.
Putin’s comments highlight that he is being careful. When he stated that Russia might use its military weapons in any situation, this does not mean he is planning to change Russia’s long-standing policies. His words are not clear, as he does not mention the name of a nation whom a nuclear strike might target.
Experts are unsure if long-range attacks on Russia would change the war. For Ukraine to make a real difference, it needs to coordinate large ground operations with these strikes, something it has not done well. Stephen Biddle, a professor at Columbia University, pointed out that during Ukraine’s summer 2023 offensive, the military couldn’t coordinate effectively. Overall, long-range strikes are costly and need precise guidance, which can become less effective as the enemy adapts.
History has witnessed that long-range bombings have not been very effective. For example, in WWII, the bombing of Japanese and German cities, along with North Korean cities did not impact them. They did not surrender despite long-range bombings.
Ukraine would need a long and continuous effort to see any real military benefits from attacking Russia, but they don’t have the resources for that right now.
The event that decides the fate of Ukraine and whether this nation can launch deeper strikes into Russia is the coming US presidential campaign. One candidate may support the war to continue and provide more military support, while others may stand in favour of peace talks. This uncertainty is affecting both Russia and Ukraine, as both nations don’t know what the US will do with them.
The results of the election will play a big role in shaping the future of the war, especially in how much military support Ukraine will receive moving forward.
