With a potential attack on Iran’s vital nuclear installations, such as the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is tucked away deep into a mountain, the United States seems to be getting closer to joining Israel in its conflict with Tehran.
Israeli authorities are awaiting word on whether US President Donald Trump would assist them in completing their strikes on Iran and its nuclear program, which began days ago. Trump’s support for striking Iranian nuclear sites with US military forces is growing, and he is losing interest in a diplomatic solution to the problem.
Could this conflict outlast Trump’s entire presidency?
According to experts, a US military action against Iran may lead to a conflict that is even more difficult than the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. It might be a protracted conflict that lasts the entirety of Trump’s administration and costs the US a great deal of lives and resources at Israel’s request.
Although Tehran might not be able to battle the US for very long, Washington will also not have an easy conflict. Given the size of Iran, the United States would need to strike a very high number of sites in order to eliminate Iran’s capacity to retaliate.
What are Iran’s options for asymmetric retaliation?
According to some Iranian officials, Tehran has already readied itself for a full-scale, protracted conflict, and the Islamic Republic already views the United States as complicit in Israel’s attacks on Iran, claiming that the Israelis are using American weaponry. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, declared on Wednesday that Iran will not compromise.
In a national speech, Khamenei declared, “Let the Americans know that the Iranian nation is not one to surrender, and any military intervention on their part will undoubtedly result in irreparable damage.”
Iran may use the remnants of its proxies in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, which have attacked US forces in the area in the past, if the US becomes directly involved in the battle.
Given its inability to defeat Israel and the US outright, experts believe Tehran may try to fight an attrition war, in which it aims to deplete its opponent’s will or ability to fight in a protracted and destructive conflict, as it did in the 1980s during the ten-year war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
Would a US attack accelerate Iran’s nuclear ambitions?
An aerial hit on Fordow would be ineffective because Iran has most certainly relocated part of its sophisticated centrifuges, and it would also undoubtedly incite Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon. Should the government decide to develop a weapon, it could only be a matter of time before Iran’s nuclear program is destroyed. The Iranians possess the skills and ability to reconstruct everything.
Israel wants to eliminate Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and Fordow is seen to be the most challenging and desirable target. However, it’s unclear exactly what’s inside the covert facility.
It’s also uncertain if the installation, which is buried deep in a mountain near the holy city of Qom, could be successfully destroyed by a US strike. The major halls of Fordow are situated between 80 and 90 meters below the earth, making them secure from any aerial bomb that Israel is known to possess.
How likely is radioactive fallout from bombed sites?
Concerns about possible radioactive fallout, which may extend well beyond Iran’s borders in the event that a nuclear plant is hit, have been raised across the area by Israel’s ceaseless bombardment of Iran and its nuclear installations. Israel has not targeted Iran’s single nuclear power facility, which is situated in the city of Bushehr in the southeast. Bombing a nuclear plant poses a greater risk than bombing Fordow.
A significant risk of radiation dissemination would not exist at Fordow, according to experts, “because that enriched uranium is fresh, as we call it in the industry.” Since it hasn’t been passed through a reactor, the radiation wouldn’t be dispersed over a wide region, unlike in the event that they bombed Bushehr, the active nuclear power facility, which would cause a lot of radiation to spread. Although the risk is not as great as striking a live reactor, there would still be some worry.
