The direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which are scheduled to be reopened in Istanbul on Monday, were always unlikely to produce any significant results. However, it’s even less probable that either side will be ready to move their red lines in the wake of what seems to be several massive Ukrainian drone attacks against key Russian sites.
The Kremlin had refused to formally outline, in the form of an agreed-upon memorandum, what it wants in exchange for ending what it calls its “Special Military Operation” prior to the most recent strikes, which targeted Russian strategic aircraft thousands of miles from the Ukrainian border.
However, Russian officials have not concealed their harsh demands, which include demilitarization of Ukraine, sovereignty over all annexations, quick sanctions relief, and what the Kremlin refers to as “de-Nazification,” which includes things like ensuring the rights of Russian speakers.
The fate of hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets abroad, as well as worries about more NATO expansion against Russian frontiers, particularly in Ukraine but also in other nations, have been persistent grievances for the Kremlin.
Will the Istanbul talks yield any real progress?
The result of the Istanbul discussions is being eagerly monitored for any indications of flexibility, and there has been conjecture in the Russian and Western media over potential bargaining topics. However, in the wake of what seems to have been a remarkable Ukrainian victory, discussions about Kremlin concessions could be put on hold for the time being.
With its apparent loss of Russian strategic bombers and other vital air assets, Ukraine enters this second round of direct negotiations with confidence. President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined Ukraine’s stances on Sunday, including the unconditional cessation of hostilities and the repatriation of Ukrainian children who had been abducted to Russia.
However, Russian demands that Ukrainian forces leave areas it claims but hasn’t even taken are still unacceptable, especially now that Ukraine has demonstrated that it can still launch attacks far beyond the front lines.
Russia was intensifying its attacks on Ukraine in what appears to be the first phases of a new summer offensive even before the most recent Ukrainian drone strikes, which occurred during the preparations for the peace negotiations in Istanbul.
Russia used 472 drones to launch its biggest drone strike on Ukraine since the start of the conflict overnight on Saturday. A Russian missile strike at a Ukrainian military training facility on Sunday left at least 12 persons dead and over 60 injured.
Is Trump losing influence over the Ukraine conflict?
As all of this is happening, a progressively irritated Trump—who once boasted that he could quickly put an end to the conflict in Ukraine—is now observing from the sidelines as a pillar of his declared foreign policy appears to be seriously faltering.
His recent reprimands of the Kremlin ruler and his pressure on the Ukrainian leader, whom Trump criticized, don’t seem to have brought the two sides any closer to a peace agreement.
If he so chooses, Trump still has a lot of authority. For example, he could impose strict new sanctions, like the ones that the US Senate has overwhelmingly approved, or change US military assistance in a way that would significantly raise the costs of continuing the war. Although the actions might not be definitive, they would demonstrate US commitment.
However, Trump claims that he is inclined to just ignore the entire situation. He maintains that this is either Putin’s or Zelensky’s battle. However, leaving may no longer be an option, though it is unclear what that implies in terms of US policy. Not leaving unharmed, at least.
Because of his personal interactions with Russian and Ukrainian officials and his own determination to resolve the situation in Ukraine, Trump and the United States are now closely associated with the result. This explains why the situation at the bargaining table in Istanbul and on the battlefield is being attentively monitored. The conflict in Ukraine has firmly become Trump’s war, and US credibility now rests on it, despite his many attempts to deny it.
