It is expected that the relationship between Trump and Mohammad Bin Salman will get stronger. The partnership between the two nations, the US and Saudi Arabia started in Trump’s first term. This partnership will strengthen in Trump’s second term. Important moments include Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia and MBS’s favoritism toward Israel. In the future their business ties will also be expanded, highlighting strong cooperation. Besides all of this, there are still many issues that create different challenges for the US-Saudi relationship. It includes issues over Iran and Palestine that create tension between them.
It is expected that in the 2nd term, Trump will continue his “maximum pressure” policy on Iran. This is because Trump has a special purpose: to stop the nation from becoming a nuclear power. This foreign policy of the US creates many problems for MBS because Saudi Arabia has its interests in dealing with Iran. At the same time, according to Trump, Iran is one of the major threats, and Saudi Arabia carefully makes deals with them. This contradictory opinion may create different challenges for the two nations and their leaders.
Prominent change in the Saudi foreign policies
Under the leadership of Mohammad Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy has changed its central focus. Historically, Saudi Arabia considers Iran one of its big enemies, but recently the nation increased in diplomatic ties with Iran in March 2023. This move by Saudi Arabia has affected the whole Gulf States. It includes the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain at the top. At an initial level, Arab nations supported Israel’s action. But now after strong ties with Iran, these nations are refusing to permit Israeli planes to fly over their airspace during Israeli attacks on Iran.
Furthermore, Saudi Crown Prince criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza. MBS called these actions genocide and demanded a separate Palestinian state before Saudi Arabia would establish ties with Israel. This opinion of the MBS contradicts that of US President Donald Trump. He is a great supporter of Israel and of US policies favoring Israel. MBS shifts points out Saudi Arabia’s reform policies for regional conflicts.
Saudi Arabia appears prepared to join the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in establishing diplomatic ties with Israel without fixing the Palestinian issue before the Hamas incursion. But since the war, Saudi Arabia has been at the vanguard of bringing Arab and Muslim countries together, advocating for a two-state solution during a summit in Riyadh. 146 UN members have previously endorsed Saudi Arabia’s call for nations like the US to recognize Palestine. Given the pressure from Israeli settlements and Netanyahu’s right-wing government to annex the West Bank, the dispute over Palestine is only going to get worse. Tensions with Saudi Arabia might grow if this happens and Trump backs it.
Another point of controversy is the production of oil. Competition is getting more intense as the United States, which produces more oil than Saudi Arabia, plans to expand output. Saudi Arabia may find it more difficult to balance its budget if oil prices decline as a result. Oil prices have decreased despite OPEC’s curbs, showing the two countries’ deepening competition.
Today’s top oil-exporting nations
Today, the major oil exporters are the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. The U.S. lacks the coordination that Saudi Arabia and Russia have, where state-run businesses work together to set production restrictions. To combat inflation, which contributed to Kamala Harris’ election defeat, Trump is probably going to advocate for lower oil prices. He cannot, however, regulate the output of private American businesses.
Complexity is heightened by the increasing number of endeavors between MBS and the Trump family. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) of MBS invested $2 billion in a company run by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, in 2022. Additionally, the Trump Organization owns a posh hotel in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Trump has supported a Saudi attempt to acquire the PGA and has pushed Saudi investments in the American golf industry. The LIV Golf-PGA merger has failed despite negotiations. The biggest worry is the widening divide between Trump’s Middle East policies and MBS, and the consequences for American interests.
